UPDATE:  After I wrote this, it was announced that Matt Gaetz had withdrawn from consideration for the job of attorney general (article in TheHill.com, Nov. 21).  This still leaves a number of other controversial Trump nominees, so this post and the article linked from it are still applicable and relevant.  

As is well known, in his announcements of choices for Cabinet and other important positions, Trump has announced nominations for a number of controversial figures, including Matt Gaetz for attorney general, Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, and Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence.  All such nominees are subject to a confirmation vote in the Senate by a simple majority.  In the upcoming Senate term, there will be 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (or, in a couple of cases, Independents who caucus with the Democrats).  Thus, in order for the Senate to reject any one of Trump’s choices, it will take four Republicans to vote no.  Will that happen?

The most basic point that needs to be understood here is that if any Republican senator or representative opposes Trump on anything, if that lawmaker runs for reelection afterwards, that lawmaker is very likely to be challenged in the Republican primary in that state or district by a strong Trump loyalist.  For much of the Republican Party in the electorate as well as in the government, the biggest issue has become degree of personal loyalty to Trump.  Therefore, in looking for four Republican senators to consider likely to oppose some of Trump’s nominees, one has to look for senators who either aren’t going to run for reelection or aren’t likely to feel threatened by far-right pro-Trump primary challenges.  Senators in that first category appear to include Mitch McConnell and Chuck Grassley.  Susan Collins of Maine is considered to be in that second category: in the next election, she’s more likely to lose to a Democratic challenger than to a pro-Trump hardline Republican.

When things are normal, most presidential nominees get confirmed.  However, when things are normal, the president doesn’t make such wild choices as Trump is making.  Then again, I happen to regard Trump himself as the wildest possible choice for president, so I can hardly be surprised that he wants Matt Gaetz for an attorney general.

This article in Politico, dated November 21, 2024, lists the senators whose votes on Trump’s nominees are uncertain, with case-by-case explanations of why.