22 thoughts on “Parker Predicts the Future (2004)

  1. Predictions are always on the range of hit-and-miss especially whenever people do come up with a top number lists just as the author did. It reminds me of those psychics on TV who claimed to have clairvoyant powers by giving their bold predictions for the New Year. Nonetheless, the author is a very respectable expert amongst his peers and in the industry, therefore I feel compelled to give him the benefit of the doubt. I feel Mr. Parker does give a lot good predictions, although even someone such as myself , who does not know anything about wines, could have easily come up with similar lists, simply due to the nature of the world that we live in now. However, I disagree with the takes that France will feel a squeeze. To begin with, Wine is considered as an integral part of France Identity. Moreover, on a global scale, people recognize that the French wine industry is the premier wineries in world, both in terms of quality and traditions. I understand that the author did mentioned that the top wineries in France will continue to flourished, however, in the same way; it is like implying that Japanese car manufacturers will take a big hit on the market because of intense competitions. Indeed the world is more and more competitive than ever before, but that does not mean that people will ignore traditions which will lead to the collapse of the many French wineries. On the other hand, I agree about his last point on the lists, about the world of wine will have grown more diverse. For example, the other day, I visited a Wine store, and I was surprise to see wines from unexpected places, such as Costa Rica, and India on the shelves. Let us consider Costa Rica, which is known as a coffee producer, which most people would have labeled as only a tourist attraction and an exporter of coffee. However, according to Mike Young, of Academicwino.com, “Costa Rica which is known as a coffee producer, is preparing to move beyond the bean and make a foray into the new frontier of wine making.” For example, myself, if I were a wine drinker, I wouldn’t necessarily abandoned traditions, but I would give these lesser known wines a chance.

  2. I think Mr. Parker made some reasonable predictions to the future. For example, the wine industry will become more diverse (according to Wines & Vines, China‘s imported wine market grew at an average rate at 60% per year) and online wine resources may replace the publication. However, since there is a 10 years gap, some of the predictions are not quite accurate. For example, in the article, he stated, “France’s obsession with tradition and maintaining the status quo will result in bankruptcy and collapse of many producers…” However, as of today, France is still a very strong wine producing country. From a research conducted by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) United Nations in 2011, France was still ranked as number one among other wine producing countries. Parker also mentioned that the reason for France losing their market is because the wine producers refused to adopt the new market trend. But, in my opinion, I think the greatest of the France wine industry is that the wine producers insist to protect their tradition and environment.

  3. I support Parker’s eighth prediction. It states that “California’s Central coast will rule America”. According to “Wine Spectator”, “… vintners are really tapping their vineyards’ potential.” Winery’s in California’s Central coast are bringing out the potential in their wineries and carry some of the best wines in the United States. The weather is always great for producing vitas vinifera. California’s Central coast has been progressing with the quality of wine as Parker stated and their potential has grown. California is part of the reason why some people travel to California; for the great wine they have been producing! To think that Parker made this prediction in 2004 and the progress California has made coming into 2015 is amazing!

    Another prediction of Parker’s that I support is “corks will come out”. I believe that wine bottles will no longer be turned away if wines are closed with screw tops. Having a wine bottle closed off with a cork can cause many mishaps to happen. Not only can the cork brome musty after a while, but if the wine bottle is not properly open there can be a case where the cork drops into the wine. According to Wine Folly’s article “Corks vs Screw Caps”, there are more cons than pros to corks than screw tops. Some cons are corks aren’t biodegradable. They are not good for the environment even if you recycle them. Also, some cork alternatives don’t breathe. You won’t be able to tell if a cork will be able to breathe or not before it’s actually stuck into the neck of the bottle. Screw caps might be the better answer.

    • Hi Amanda,
      Thanks so much for the note you left about Robert Parker’s predictions in the F&W article. I’m doing some research for a paper about CA Central Coast wines….I’m encountering some contradictions from what I am reading, which is not uncommon. Would you mind passing along the date of the Wine Spectator article? Thanks so much in advance for your help.
      Anna

  4. There was the hypothesis in the scientific method and now it is Parker predicts the future of wines, and with researching deeper the information given to me from the graphs and charts from the PowerPoint, I would have to agree with him on how distribution will be revolutionized and wine web will go mainstream, these two topics go hand and hand for me because as seen with other things to broaden the range of people you must keep up with the times and make the people happy, so that means updating and giving old school distribution methods a face lift so by all means because it is a lucrative business. And for wine web, technology is taking over, and it is so advance to some that is the only way of life people know, and as a business you must reach those people who only know computers and web and get them to try and love wine. As wine becomes more approachable to people it is safe to make such predictions because the pallet will become more specific and the needs and wants of removing corks will eventually become something of the past of older generations.

  5. I support Parkers third prediction, “World bidding wars will begin for top wines”, this prediction seems really realistic to me due to the fact that their are limited wine production for certain wines and they will one day have a very short supply of certain wines that consumes love. When something like this happens, I do believe that wine lovers will be willing to spend top dollar for their favorite wine that is now very limited. Parker states that, “…if my instincts are correct, 10 years from now a great vintage of these first growths will cost over $10,000 a case…at the minimum”. These wines are luxurious and will definitely increase in price when the demand rises.

    Another prediction I support is Parkers fifth prediction, “Corks will come out”. I strongly agree that cork company’s will eventually do away completely with corks because of the fact that it ruins up to 15% of all wine bottles. Preventing this from happening along with the moldy and musty “basement smell” is to increase the use of screw caps. I do believe that eventually screw caps will be exclusively used for wine bottles, and corks will just no longer be used. However it will take a long time for us to only see and use screw caps due to the fact that we already have tons of wines bottled and in cases with corks. However, it is a working progress.

  6. Eleven years ago, Robert M. Parker Jr., the world’s foremost wine guru predicted into the future where he outlined 12 seismic changes that will influence how we’ll shop, what we’ll buy and how much we’ll pay. Let us look at a few of these as of 2014. Parker made a prediction that come 2015 going onwards, Spain will become a star. It will continue to soar in the production of good quality wine. The combination of absolute creativity with the finest traditional characteristics and modern winemaking philosophy will propel Spain into the major leagues. Parker predicted Ribera del Duero and Rioja – a traditional area that has since time immemorial produced Spain’s finest wines will have assumed second place behind such up-and-coming regions as Toro, Jumilla and Priorat.
    Well, come 2014 and Parker was not wrong at least to a larger extent. Today Spain is among the leading countries in production of super quality and fine wine. When he predicted Rioja was going to play up close just behind Toro and Jumilla and Priorat, that has come to be. Rioja has kept up with present dynamics becoming one of the diverse wine producing regions. It has mixed up wide ranging styles of wine production embracing oaked and unoaked, traditional and modern, blends to single vineyards and commercial to great.
    Parker had predicted that by 2014 France would feel a squeeze. France has dominated the world in the production of quality wines and Parker felt this would have been challenged with the globalization of wine. He went on to say that France obsession of traditional and status quo will result in the collapse and bankruptcy of many producers who refuse to recognize the competitive nature of today’s globalized market.
    Well, for this one I guess he was somewhat partly right for the main reason that top estates would turn out the most compelling wines and receive the most colossal prices for them. On the part of collapse and bankruptcy of many producers, that was a little farfetched, as the EU’s support and creation of new systems such as Vin de France has to some extent prevented the fall of France from grace. This is the same case for regions such as Roussillon, South West, Beaujolais Loire, and Jura that have in recent times attracted new friends.

  7. I’m not too sure if Parkers fifth prediction, “Corks will come out” will actually happen since it hasn’t happened already. To me, wine traditionally is seen with corks for as long as we can go back. I think it is a part of what make wine ..wine. Knowing that the cork is responsible for ruining 15% of wine makes me think that there must be a reason that wine producers are continuing to use the cork instead of switching to screw-caps.
    I support Parkers eleventh prediction “Value will be valued”. It is true that now you can find “more high-quality, low-priced wines than ever before”. In class we have discussed these kinds of wines as “everyday wines” that are inexpensive but are still produced with quality. As for Australia, I personally enjoy Australian wine, such as Yellow Tail products. They are decent wines which are reasonably priced.

  8. I disagree with Parker’s prediction that by 2015 wines bottled with corks will be the minority. Though the screw cap and other closure options are gaining popularity, Cork is still the most popular stopper. According to our textbook Exploring Wine the article Cork: Is the Honeymoon Over, states that cork sales are at $4 billion annually. If you visit wine shops and wine retailers the majority of wines available have cork closures. Though 8 to 12 percent of wines that are sealed with corks have been contaminated, measures are being taken by the cork industry to reduce these issues.

    I agree with Parker’s third prediction of the wine web going mainstream. He states that wine publications will now be made up of a range of experts, consultants, specialists and chatty wine nerds is certainly true. As Professor Goodlad has proven this point through her many Posts of various wine blogs, we except and appreciate the opinion and information from various levels experts and enthusiast. For example Wine Spectator is a major American lifestyle and wine magazine, with 15 issues printed each year and millions of subscribers. Social media platforms such as Pinterest and Instagram are also immensely popular and offer a lot of information about wine.

    • I agree with your comment about wine web going mainstream. These days social media is very popular and most businesses create business with programs such as Pinterest and Instagram.

  9. I think that Mr. Parker’s predictions are very interesting. The two predictions that caught my attention are, “ Spain will be the star” and “ Corks will come out.”

    I support Parker’s Sixth prediction,” Spain will be the star,” which it tells us that Spain will continue to soar. Spain is considered with the top ten countries producing wine. Spain produces around 33397 mhl Yearly. However, this country was focused more on the quantity rather than the quality. What makes Mr. Parker’s prediction reasonable is that Spain is trying to provide much better quality. Today, Spain is considered as a leader in wine creativity and quality. According to an article that I read, “ In Search of Wine Star Quality, “ posted in The Wall Street Journal by Lettie Teague, there will be new vineyards and talented people that will ensure to give a star quality to the wine of Spain.

    Also, I support Mr. Parker’s fifth prediction,“ Corks will come out.”I totally agree that using corks can damage and ruin up to fifteen percent of all wine bottles; in addition to that, Cork is a major source of TCA, Trichloroanisole, which it can impart bad flavors and aromas to wines. According to the article, The Truth About Wine Sealed with Cork Versus a Screw Cap, by Shannon Mccook, a bottle sealed with a cap ensures your wine will not be contaminated with TCA. Consequently, I believe that screw caps will be much more used than the corks.

  10. I loved this article, Robert M. Parker Jr is so knowledgeable, it’s as if he is speaking a different language. What is remarkable is that it was written in 2004 and he is so specific and confident of the information he is relaying. In his first prediction he states that distribution will be revolutionized by 2015. He predicts the destruction of the three- tiered system of wine distribution in America allowing wineries to sell directly to consumers. This prediction has come true, according to Wine Spectator (n.d.) Retrieved February 19, 2015 http://www.winespectator.com/ in an article written in May 2013 by Robert Taylor. It purports that due to the legalization of direct shipping of wine, sales have increased significantly. Maryland legalized direct shipping of wine to consumers in 2011 and in 2012 direct sales increased by 179%. Tennessee where it became legalized in 2009, had an increase of 44% in 2011. It also points out that California was the number 1 producer and consumer of direct shipped wines in 2012. Parker’s third prediction excited my curiosity, I was ready and confident to debunk his theories. He predicted that first growth Bordeaux prices would see a significant increase due to world bidding wars for top wines. This would be due to their finite availability and an increase in appreciation by the wine community for such wines. He stated that first growth Bordeaux wines which cost an average of $4,000 a case in 2003 would rise to over $10,000 a case in 2013. Preposterous I thought! But as it turns out he was right once again. According to the The Wine Cellar Insider. (n.d.). Retrieved February 19, 2015, from http://www.thewinecellarinsider.com/ the cost of first growth Bordeaux wines are now being sold at a futures cost is $1,000 or more per bottle, which translates to $10,000 or more per case. He is someone I would love to meet, I wonder if he is still in the profession or has he retired?

  11. I agree on most of Parker’s predictions. Particularly the one about wine web going mainstream. This is evident simply through social media. Just the other day I almost ordered a bottle of wine off the web but decided it would be more productive if I take walk to the wine shop. I also agree that wine will be in high demand for those buyers that spend a lot of money on specific grape variety wines that will no longer be $4,000 a case but $10,000. I agree with this because a friend of mine is a member of a particular wine region I can’t remember which one somewhere in California and he is a n exclusive V.I.P member with this vineyard. There is a waiting list for this particular batch of wine. I’m sure this isn’t the only one that is dealing with this escalated price change.

    I’m not sure if I agree that Malbec will make it big however I could be wrong. I don’t know much about Malbec but it’s always been my favorite red. I don’t have a big palate for red wines and so I’m excited to try more. I already thought Malbec was a well known and sold red wine but I guess I was wrong. I am all in favor for more Malbec’s since it is my favorite red grape variety of reds.

    I also agree on the prediction that traditional corks will be used less and less only for the vintage and the expensive wines. I see this happening already and I remember a few years ago someone was telling me that corks are already coming out of the industry and getting replaced with screw on caps and what have you. A reason for this change maybe be to the survival of the wine industries. If the cork isn’t being corked properly and in turn ruining the wines then it is understandable that only the vintage wines and elite collection wines will be corked. It is unfortunate because part of the beauty of opening wine is taking the cork out. My suggestion is stock up now before Parker’s prediction becomes valid!

  12. I find it amazing how some of Parker’s predictions dated to 2004 are our current reality in 2015; spot on! Prediction number 8 speaks volumes on California’s Central coast ruling America and in fact it is. According to an article put out by Wine Spectator in 2014 “It’s a spectacular region, encompassing some of the state’s—indeed, some of the country’s—most impressive terrain…”. Furthermore, within the article you get the sense that the Central Coast of California is among North America’s most spectacular, stretching from Santa Barbara to Monterey. Additionally, there are many of the finest wine producers in the smaller areas of the region that are amenable to visitation by ingenious wine lovers.

    However, I will have to debunk the fourth prediction about France feeling a squeeze. Especially the prediction that “ top five percent of the estates will turn out the most compelling wines and receive increasingly astronomical prices for them”. This prediction is based of the notice of globalization of wine and assumption that because it is to be forgotten or walked away from. But many still hold the respect and love for the complexity and traditional aspects of French wine therefore, there will always be a market. As far as pricing, you can still to this day get a great wine bottle fairly reasonably priced from vineyards of France. I have seen in my own experiences and have read of experts experiences. I read a very interesting article from Wine Spectator, written in November 2011 by Matt Krammer where he makes a case for French wine stating “Make no mistake: At this moment, some of the world’s greatest wine deals come from France”. To think that such remarkable, unrivaled and note-taking wine would ever need such defending is amazing to me. I’ve learned that perhaps these predictions are made because it has a lot to with the turnover of the younger generation of American wine drinkers who are i increasing turning their backs on French wine. For a variety of reasons and some are that they don’t want to be associated with stuffy traditionalism of France or it’s wine or the complex labeling, place names as it may be off putting. Other reasons may be. But I know there are some that can shake off the feeling of beauty of French wines in all of its variety, flavors and complexity. With some that you can share the experience of it’s quality and still get considerable change from a $20 bill. France’s wine market has not threats in my opinion as it is archival and elite in a sense.

  13. I find it amazing how some of Parker’s predictions dated to 2004 are our current reality in 2015; spot on! Prediction number 8 speaks volumes on California’s Central coast ruling America and in fact it is. According to an article put out by Wine Spectator in 2014 “It’s a spectacular region, encompassing some of the state’s—indeed, some of the country’s—most impressive terrain…”. Furthermore, within the article you get the sense that the Central Coast of California is among North America’s most spectacular, stretching from Santa Barbara to Monterey. Additionally, there are many of the finest wine producers in the smaller areas of the region that are amenable to visitation by ingenious wine lovers.

    However, I will have to debunk the fourth prediction about France feeling a squeeze. Especially the prediction that “ top five percent of the estates will turn out the most compelling wines and receive increasingly astronomical prices for them”. This prediction is based of the notice of globalization of wine and assumption that because it is to be forgotten or walked away from. But many still hold the respect and love for the complexity and traditional aspects of French wine therefore, there will always be a market. As far as pricing, you can still to this day get a great wine bottle fairly reasonably priced from vineyards of France. I have seen in my own experiences and have read of experts experiences. I just read a very interesting article from Wine Spectator, written in November 2011 by Matt Krammer where he makes a case for French wine stating “Make no mistake: At this moment, some of the world’s greatest wine deals come from France”. To think that such remarkable, unrivaled, and note-taking wine would ever need such defending is amazing to me. I’ve learned that perhaps these predictions are made because it has a lot to with the turnover of the younger generation of American wine drinkers who are i increasing turning their backs on French wine. For a variety of reasons and some are that they don’t want to be associated with stuffy traditionalism of France or it’s wine or the complex labeling, place names as it may be off putting. Other reasons may be. But I know there are some that can shake off the feeling of beauty of French wines in all of its variety, flavors and complexity. With some that you can share the experience of it’s quality and still get considerable change from a $20 bill. France’s wine market has not threats in my opinion as it is archival and elite in a sense.

  14. In the article, I agree with some of Parker’s predictions especially number 11 and 12. In prediction number 11, he stated that value will be valued. As a consumer we are always looking for the best value and quality for our money. It makes sense when he said there will be more better quality wines for the price due to the huge competitive aspect in the wine industry. Wine stores carries a huge selection of wines from all over the world, so winemakers must produce the best quality wine for the price as they can so it can gain sales. As for prediction number 12, he stated diversity will be the word. Since wine is becoming more popular as time goes by. We would need more resources from other places to keep up with the demand. I agree with Parker that in time wine will be the alcohol beverage of choice.

  15. In the article, “Parker Predicts the Future”, By Robert M. Parker, Jr., I support the views on “Value will be valued” and “Distribution will be revolutionized”. On Parker’s prediction of “Value will be valued”, it tells us there will be a large demand for low priced wine. In this week’s power point there was a graph, “Core Weekly/Monthly purchases by Price Category, 2012”, which showed us there was a large popularity for wine purchases in the $10-$14.99 range. This seems like a huge trend right now that would probably continue for the next several years, as Parker predicts.

    In the prediction that, “Distribution will be revolutionized”, this also seems possible since internet shopping has become very common. There was another graph on this week’s power point, “Past Year Direct Wine Purchases, 2010”, which showed us 14% of core buyers and 5% of marginal buyers purchased their wine at a winery website. According to Parker, “This narrowly restricted approach (blame all the lobbyists funded by powerful liquor and wine wholesalers) is coming to a dramatic end—hastened in part by the comparative ease of ordering wine over the Internet.” The wine industry can become much more profitable by offering another way to purchase wine through the internet.

  16. In the article “Parker Predicts the Future,” Robert M. Parker, Jr. informs his readers about 12 predictions he made in 2004 revolving around wine. Now that it has been over 10 years, it is remarkable to see how some of his predictions became a reality. In Mr. Parker’s second prediction titled “The wine Web will go mainstream,” he could not have predicted this more accurately because we live in an age where technology and social media are at an all-time high when it comes to communicating and connecting with other people. Businesses, especially in our industry, use the Internet and social media platforms to sell what they have to offer which makes it more tangible to a guest even if it is through a computer screen. For example, a bar may have a website that offers pictures and detailed descriptions of the beverages they serve. Many people also use social media as a way to share their experiences and if they have great reviews about a certain restaurant or a specific wine they enjoyed, other people will want to have the same great experiences. I also agree with Mr. Parker’s ninth prediction titled “Southern Italy will ascend.” This was fascinating to read because in this week’s PowerPoint about Service Sales & Storage, there is a graph called “Imported Wine Purchases in Past 3 Months” that shows Italy as having the highest percentage of recent purchases by country. I believe Italian wines will keep increasing in popularity and we will see an even larger market for them which I am hoping for!

  17. 2 The wine Web will go mainstream
    ” Internet message boards, Web sites tailored for wine geeks and state-of-the-art winery sites all instantaneously disseminate information about new wines and new producers. Today the realm of cyberspace junkies and hardcore Internet users, these sites will become mainstream in 10 years. A much more democratic, open range of experts, consultants, specialists, advisors and chatty wine nerds will assume the role of today’s wine publications”.

    I support Parkers Predication that wine web will go mainstream because in today world you can find everything and anything on the internet. You can go to a restaurant website look at the menu and order your food online to come to your work place or even your home. If you aren’t satisfied with the purchase with a ligate claim they will refund you. We all have smart phones that will allow us to record and take pictures which we can download and save and even submit to a blog to make complaints. We all shop for the better price on the web.
    for everything so why not wine. The web is the new world even in school. You must change with the time or you will be lost.

    8 California’s Central Coast will rule America
    Look for wines from California’s Central Coast (an enormous region that runs from Contra Costa down to Santa Barbara) to take their place alongside the hallowed bottlings of Napa and Sonoma valleys. No viticultural region in America has demonstrated as much progress in quality and potential for greatness as the Central Coast, with its Rhône varietals, and the Santa Barbara region, where the Burgundian varietals Chardonnay and Pinot Noir are planted in its cooler climates.
    California central coast will rule America because the owners have clone a method in which they grow the grapes in season and out of season to keep the supply and demand than any other country.

  18. Robert M .Parlker , Jr, the world’s foremost wine genius predictions about seismic changes that will influence how we’ll shop, what we ‘ll buy and how much we’ll pay are postive. All the twelve predictions seems very valid but i would to support on his 5th prediction of corks will come out. Cork in wine has so many problem to it. It gives musty, moldy , wet basement smell which ruins more than 15% of the wine bottles. Screwcap as an alternative to cork where born in 1959. With its screw initiative, and the recent anagural screwcap symposium held in Blenheim, New Zealand is now leading the way in advocating the widespread use of screwcap as an alternative to corks says the Jamie goode.Today, more than 70% of wine produced in New Zealand are screwcap. Nowadays we can find the wine from all over the world. In past year when we talk about wine growing region ,France an Italy were in front row but these days we can find the wine from everywhere. Like Bulgaria ,Romania China, India and so on others.For instance ,Drinking has been been a part of a culture to Indian. However with the advent of frequent foreign travel they have a habit of drinking wine.India today boost its own indigenous wines. Some major wine produced in India are Chardonnay, Chenin blanc, Sauvignon Blanc, Cabernet sauvignon and Shiraz.

  19. 5 Corks will come out
    I disagree with his predictions when it comes to corks because I feel like it depends on the age of the wine or what type of wine it is if it doesn’t have a cork screw. Although many people prefer screw tops I don’t think that corks would be minority. As written in the article, “More and more state-of-the-art wineries are moving to screw caps for wines that need to be consumed within 3 to 4 years of the vintage (about 95 percent of the world’s wines).” I think although wineries are moving through screw caps people would still prefer the corks because at times corks and the aging may change the taste of the wine screw caps do come in handy when your not done with a bottle of wine.

    4 France will feel a squeeze
    I agree because of the stress that France has with needing to produce wines i do believe there’s a chance of bankruptcy. As written in the article, “However, France’s obsession with tradition and maintaining the status quo will result in the bankruptcy and collapse of many producers who refuse to recognize the competitive nature of the global wine market.” With this quote itself I feel like its true that France will feel a squeeze. People may wonder what does he mean by feel a squeeze and I think he means like stressed or feel like everything is soon going to fall apart since France is well known for the production of wines.

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