Congress recently did something it rarely does: passed a major bill with huge bipartisan support. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which passed the House 358-32 and the Senate 85-5, makes it harder for rich investment firms to control large numbers of houses and makes it easier to build new houses by easing regulatory restrictions, among other provisions. In other words, it’s about making houses easier for middle-class Americans to buy.
Trump had previously been in support of this bill, and in fact he still hasn’t expressed any substantive objections to it. However, he is refusing to sign the bill until Congress passes the SAVE America Act. And that bill just doesn’t have the votes. The SAVE America Act would require voters to show proof of citizenship before registering, which for a lot of Americans is easier said than done and in any event is not widely considered necessary to guard against voter fraud. But Trump strongly wants this act passed, and if it were to be passed in time, it would make it much harder for the Democrats to take a majority in either chamber of Congress in this year’s midterm elections.
Two key principles need to be remembered. First, the Constitution provides that the president has ten days not counting Sunday to sign or veto a bill, otherwise it becomes law. Thus, Trump is going to have to either sign or veto the housing act, or else it will become law by default and Trump will have accomplished nothing.
Second, because of the tradition of the filibuster, it takes 60 votes in the Senate, not just a simple majority, to pass a piece of regular legislation. (This is not because of anything that’s in the Constitution.) Only Republicans want the SAVE America Act to pass, and the Republicans do not have a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate.
Theoretically, the Republicans could vote to abolish the filibuster any time, making it possible for them to pass the SAVE America Act and any number of other acts that they want passed. Trump has tried to pressure them into doing so. He has also tried to get the Senate parliamentarian, the one who rules on what kinds of acts can be passed with just a simple majority, fired, determined as he is to get this act passed. But, it doesn’t appear likely to happen, as even Trump has to admit.
As things stand now, the Democrats have a fair chance to take a majority in the House of Representatives, not so much the Senate, in this November’s midterm elections. Even if the Democrats take both chambers, they won’t be able to control the legislative agenda in any meaningful way. However, if they take a majority in the House, you can expect to see a spate of investigative hearings at Trump’s expense, maybe even a third impeachment trial.