Looking Ahead to This Year’s Congressional Elections

As we’re aware, the Democrats currently have a slim majority in the House of Representatives and a precarious majority in the Senate that is only made possible by Vice President Harris casting the tie-breaking vote where there are 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats (technically, 48 Democrats and two Independents who caucus with the Democrats).  This coming November, there is a midterm round of congressional elections.  Obviously, both parties are striving hard to have the majority in both chambers of Congress in these elections.  With that in mind, I want to make you aware of a website that is tracking the races in both chambers.

First, let’s consider the Senate.  Please click this link.  It needs to be remembered that one-third of Senate seats come up for election every two years.  This year, there are 34 Senate elections.  Of those 34, as seen on this interactive map, there are 9 seats that are considered secure wins for the Democrats, 2 seats that are considered probable wins for the Democrats (one more so than the other), 14 seats that are considered secure wins for the Republicans, 3 seats that are considered probable wins for the Republicans (2 more so than the third), and–here’s the significant part now–6 seats that are considered highly competitive, seats that could swing either way.  Those seats are the ones in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.  Of those six states, all except North Carolina went for Biden in 2020, but that does not mean anything definitive.  These are ALL states that went for Trump in 2016.

Now, the House.  Please click this link now. A key complicating factor is that as a result of the 2020 census, the districts are being redrawn, and in some states that process still hasn’t been completed, which means we still don’t know exactly what the House districts are going to be.  In the House, every district comes up for election every two years, and this website provides a list of 33 seats that are considered highly competitive.

In a number of these races, there are going to be primary election battles between the Trump loyalists and anti-Trump Republicans, and at present, it’s the Trump loyalists who are most likely to win Republican primaries, because the majority of Republican voters still favor Trump and think that a good Republican is one who is loyal to Trump.  How that will affect the general elections remains to be seen.  Republicans are still able to win votes on “culture wars” issues, like the belief that the Democrats want to teach so-called “critical race theory” in the public school classrooms.  Aside from that, it also needs to be remembered that the president’s party typically loses seats in Congress in midterm elections, and we currently have a Democratic president with an approval rating hovering at around 42%, pretty much were Trump was for much of his presidency.

Both parties are going to be treating these elections as vital, and we can definitely expect a lot of political drama this year surrounding them.  Be sure to follow closely, and feel free to post your thoughts on the OpenLab discussion board any time.

 

 

 

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