Biden needs 270 electoral votes. How many electoral votes does he have now? That actually depends on which news site you look at. Associated Press and Fox regard Arizona, with its 11 electoral votes, as decisively won by Biden even as the vote count continues, but the New York Times is being more cautious. Thus, the Times tells that Biden has 253 electoral votes in the bag, while other news outlets are calling it 264.
If Biden has 264 votes, then all he needs is Nevada. But the way things look now, Biden seems on track to win Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, in which case any other states would be bonus. Here’s the thing about Pennsylvania: Two days ago, Trump was ahead by at least 7 percentage points. However, we were assured, once the absentee ballots were counted, Biden would win. So far, that seems to be correct, because Trump’s lead over the last two days kept inching down, and this morning Biden overtook the lead. Given that all that’s left to count in any significant number in Pennsylvania is mail-in ballots, and given that the mail-in ballots so far have been overwhelmingly in Biden’s favor, it doesn’t look plausible that Trump can retake the lead.
There’s yet another state that Biden may win, which hasn’t been considered all that much of a swing state, and that’s Georgia. Biden pulled ahead of Trump there this morning, and as in Pennsylvania, since it’s mainly the mail-in ballots being counted, and since Biden voters were the ones who trusted mail-in voting, Georgia is looking pretty good for Biden. And again, Biden doesn’t need Georgia. Pennsylvania alone will give him a win, and without Pennsylvania, if he can keep his lead in both Arizona and Nevada, he will have won.
Trump, meanwhile, seems to think he’s rightfully won the election and thinks that the counting of mail-in ballots that takes away his lead in those key states is a big colossal fraud. You’ve heard me say before that I can’t pretend to be neutral about Trump, and his behavior at present fits right in with the complete lack of dignity that he has brought to the office of the presidency and the complete lack of respect that he has for the responsibilities of the office, which include taking loss in an election a bit more gracefully.
There’s a lot that still needs to be said about the Senate, but for now, I’ll just note that it doesn’t look very promising for the Democrats to retake the majority. I’ll post more on that after the counting is farther along, but I can say right now that two races in Georgia, one regular and one special, are heading for run-offs in January, and even if Georgia’s voters vote for Biden, that’s no predictor that they’ll vote Democratic in these two January contests. Again, more on that on a later date. Meanwhile, please keep watching the news updates; the major political news feeds are on the right of the main OpenLab page.