Wednesday, 9:30 a.m.: Biden Can Still Win, but So Can Trump

The news site that I’m checking throughout the day is the New York Times: ¬† ¬†Here’s how it looks at the moment.

Trump has definitely won Florida, which keeps him in the race. ¬†He has also won Ohio, which Biden tried to flip back to blue but that wasn’t a state he could count on. ¬†It looks now as if Trump will be winning North Carolina, though it hasn’t been called yet. ¬†On the bright side for Biden, he appears to be winning Arizona, which is one of the states that Trump won in 2016.

Biden is counting on winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. ¬†Now, if you look on the Times¬†site, you see Trump ahead in Pennsylvania by 11 percentage points with 75% of votes counted. ¬†However, that doesn’t mean a whole lot, for this reason: ¬†the 25% of votes that still remain to be counted (over a million), and that may take until Friday, are mail-in votes, and so far the counted mail-in votes have been overwhelmingly for Biden. ¬†Biden absolutely needs Pennsylvania, and if he doesn’t win both of those other key states, he’ll need another toss-up state like Arizona, which again looks favorable for him.

But what we’re definitely not going to see is a landslide victory for Biden. ¬†Biden’s best hope now is for a narrow victory. ¬†While a majority of voters nationwide clearly favor Biden, about half the voters in the crucial swing state are for Trump. ¬†So again, this election can still go either way.

Edited (at 10:30 a.m.) to add: ¬†According to some rough math that I just did, I¬†think that if Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona (where he is currently slightly ahead, and mail-in votes may keep him ahead), but loses Pennsylvania, he will have won by exactly one electoral vote. ¬†Again, that’s the math I just did. ¬†Biden currently has 227 electoral votes, he needs 43 more to win, and the electoral votes of those four states add up to exactly 43. ¬†So if he loses Pennsylvania, he needs those four states. ¬†If he wins Pennsylvania, he still needs most of those other four states.

Here are the numbers.

Again, Biden needs 43 more electoral votes.

Pennsylvania has 20.  Wisconsin has 10.  Michigan has 16.  Nevada has 6.  Arizona has 11.

In all of those states except Pennsylvania, Biden is slightly ahead. ¬†If it’s true that what remains to be counted is mail-in ballots, and if it’s true that the mail-in ballots are mostly Biden votes, then Biden has a good chance of winning, though again, not by any landslide. ¬†But Trump is still in the game. ¬†Stay tuned.

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