I want to make this posting very quick and concise. I trust everybody will be looking for updates tonight (Tuesday). We’re not going to know the results tonight from Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, all of which are considered crucial for Biden. However, we will be getting the results from Florida and North Carolina, and those states are important too. Here’s the scoop on those two states:
If Biden wins Florida, then it will be a very strong probability that he has won the election.
If Biden wins North Carolina but loses Florida, that will be a good sign for Biden as well.
If Biden wins both North Carolina and Florida, then the election will be his no matter what else happens.
If Trump wins both Florida and North Carolina, the election will still be wide open, but now Biden will really need to win all three of those crucial states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Now, about the Senate. We probably won’t know the final results in the Senate until the end of the week, and we may not even know until January, but I’m going to give you two contests to watch tonight as an early harbinger: North Carolina and Maine. If the Democrats can win both of those Senate races (that is, if Cal Cunningham beats Thom Tillis in North Carolina and if Sara Gideon also beats Susan Collins in Maine, then things will look reasonably promising for the Democrats, but there will still be more results that we have to wait for. If the Republicans win both of those contests, the Democrats will still stand some chance of retaking the Senate, but it will be a much slimmer one.
The Democrats will almost certainly be keeping their majority in the House of Representatives. Of course, they want to increase their majority while the Republicans hope they can cut into it.
Among the places to look for regular updates is http://www.politico.com. And again, feel free to post your thoughts on the OpenLab discussion board. We are living through history-making drama tonight and all of this week. Let’s all help each other make sense of it all.